Experts predict recession to end late 2009

02.24.09
By Timothy Jones

A new February outlook shows that despite expectations for increased unemployment and declining housing prices, an end to the recession could be in sight.

According to the National Association for Business Economics, professional industry forecasters expect the recession to continue through mid 2009, but then see economic activity picking up again in the latter half of the year.

NABE president Chris Varvares says, "Credit conditions remain tight and declines in equity markets and home values, combined with significant job losses, are causing consumers to rein in discretionary spending."

He continues, "While a few reports offer some glimmer of hope, a meaningful recovery is not expected to take hold until next year."

But when that recovery does begin, 34 percent of the NABE panel of forecasters sees the U.S. as the leader coming out of the recession.

Until then, industry experts suggest unemployment could creep up to 9 percent. They see the Great Lakes economy as the U.S. region most at risk for higher employment due to its auto-centric economy.

Agriculturally focused states in the Southwest, Rocky Mountains, and Plains are considered "less vulnerable."

As the economy remains on shaky ground over the near term, fears of job loss and pay freezes have caused many Americans to cut down on credit card debt and boost their savings.

This week, recognized as America Saves Week, is a timely reminder to assess your savings progress and take steps to shore up your personal financial security.

Coordinated by savings coalitions America Saves and the American Savings Education Council, individuals are encouraged by participating organizations like the IRS and the Federal Trade Commission to take steps to "build wealth, not debt."

Last year, America Saves Week reached millions of consumers through press, 1,800 events and internet programs. According to the coalition website, over 80 national organizations and 500 local organizations participated in the savings campaign.

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The economy may pick up in the second half of the year